Will this get any easier? Based on Bleacher Report’s expert NFL analysts are currently faring this season, it can’t get much harder.
Deciding at every game, Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport and Brent Sobleski had another challenging streak in Week 12, falling their combined record . Individually and as a crew, here is the damage through 12 months (a week’s records in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus picks: 83-87-6 (7-8)
With December loomingwe asked longtime sports betting advisor Dave Tuley if there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for the betting public or if the sportsbooks will continue to benefit from bigger samples late in the season.
Tuley gave us a hope, but not sufficient to get.
“There was a time less than a dozen years ago where I had a lot of years in a row where I just killed it the next half of the year and in December,” he explained. “At the time, I felt like it was only the time of year once the good teams were being overrated and the terrible teams were being underrated, and with parity what it was, the underdogs were doing a lot better at the time.”
But Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have struck benefits . “As much as bettors want to believe that we are becoming smarter the more people see these teams play,” he said,”obviously the oddsmakers are seeing the very same things we are, and they’re adjusting and making it tough as well.”
But he believes it’s possible to pick out lines which were exaggerated by streaks and/or slumps. In particular, he pointed at the 7.5-point spread in favor of this New Orleans Saints in a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that lineup, oddsmakers are indicating the Saints will be preferred by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were in New Orleans, which will seem high considering the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak.
“That is [a reflection of] the way the Saints have been playing,” Tuley said. “For the books to balance their action, they have to place it at that number.”
It’s something to keep in mind as we enter this 2018 season’s final month. It may not save your season but if you’ve been after us all year, any guidance helps.
Here’s what Davenport, Gagnon and Sobleski are considering heading to the initial slate in more than two months.
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