This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to get my 3rd chair this week to max it if I could. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at the $30k prize, and then I will likely have a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into money games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is your cash game play for me . On the betting line he is now -1100 and he’s -206 to acquire ITD. He’s also +110 to win in round 1. He’s my favorite play on the plank, the only real issue is being able to afford him. For money games, I will for sure fit him . For GPPs it will be more difficult to get 6 wins paying up for his massive salary, but I enjoy him there as well. I simply will not make it a priority to get him into those championship lineups, but cash I want that -1100 in my group to get a secure win.
GPP play of this week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I’d like to target. My favorite drama is Spann however Little Nog is in play as well. The best thing for FDGTD is -280 and I believe Spann could win via KO or sub, and it might be 1st round as well. I believe he could compete with the 9k fighters and that he is a man that kicks them off the 1st place lineup. Small Nog is the better fighter however and Spann does not have a fantastic chin himself, so that I really could see Nog winning through KO. I don’t think that’s likely, so that I will not be heavy on himbut he will make my participant pool. Spann is a man I think is in play in all formats and I will attempt to be overweight on him. It’s more of a fade on Small Nog at this point, but I really don’t see this battle going all 3-rounds and that I like Spann to find the win.
Underdog drama of this week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I expect Volkanovski to be quite chalky and rightfully so. He’s my favorite play in this fight and his past scores pretty much make him a man you can not fade if you are MMEing. I really don’t see him using the ceiling that he did in his past struggles vs Aldo, but these numbers are difficult to ignore. His 6 UFC wins have every totaled over 100 DK points. From latest struggle to his debut, all these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That’s pretty amazing. I believe he has a fantastic chance of upsetting the legend here and possibly getting an end for another score. I really don’t believe Aldo is a fantastic matchup for him to demonstrate that 100+ point ceiling but at $7.8k we don’t require that lots of points. I believe IF he wins, he easily pays off that salary.
Fade of the week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There’s no way I am paying 8.9k for Carolina. She’s the fade of this week and if it disturbs me afterward it disturbs me. I don’t see that being true though even when she wins. I expect this struggle to stay standing and that I don’t see her striking at a speed to cover off her cost without obtaining a finish. I really don’t believe she gets that complete so even when she wins I believe she scores nearer to 75 DK points and at her salary which won’t end up to the perfect lineup. Even if I make 150 lineups this week I will not get any vulnerability to Carolina.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 76-45 to get +260.95 (+$26,095) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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