This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some decent competitions for us with this particular Sunday card. The main GPP is that a $10 buy and $20k goes to 1st place, also there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that final competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50 or so entries at the $20k prize. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into cash games. With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the background, in my view. I believe he will be the better fighter anywhere this battle moves, and he should dominate. I enjoy locking that win in my cash match and I think he’s a good chance at getting 10x his $9.4additional salary. I really do expect him to become hot in tournaments so if you would like to fade the ownership there and attempt to become more contrarian, I’d definitely need some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is tough so he could last all 3 rounds and when he does then Luque might only score in the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. But, we could work with an ~80-point triumph in cash games because we only need to conquer half the field unlike those tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week due to the chances. A bit over a week ago he had been a -255 favorite and that’s what resulted in his high $95 price tag. Now he is only -155 and the worth is on Ngannou at his $7.2k price label. I anticipate Ngannou to be the highest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he will kill off near half the field. Furthermore, if Cain wins he is probably scoring over 100-points. I expect his ownership to really go down the more his gambling line reduces and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He does have a 0-point flooring, therefore I do not care for him in money game, however for GPPs we need boom or float to attempt to get to that 1st place prize.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He’s $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he’s just a +125 underdog. I believe he has a fantastic chance of winning this fight and I am picking him to get his hands raised. I expect this to be a very close battle, but I believe Fili is going to probably be the fighter striking at the greater pace and that is what I believe gets it done for him on the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili with 100+ point upside down but we don’t really need that in his $7.4k price tag. I think he has a great shot at getting at least 10x, so he is playable in all formats for me personally.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I think she will lose, but I believe have difficulty seeing her on the 20k lineup at her salary. I enjoy the 9k range a great deal more than her and they all have higher ceilings with their grappling-based game programs. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC debut, but that is because she did use grappling there. I really don’t see her doing this in this game because I think Evans-Smith has the edge on the floor and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee will win this fight, then she’s going to have to get it done on the toes and I don’t see her with a high ceiling with no finish. The only reason to use her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it’ll make your lineup contrarian, but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 57-34 for +188.13u (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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